Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
